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NASDAQ · US · Communication Equipment

LITE Lumentum

EML and CW lasers for 800G/1.6T

Sold out to ~2029 CEO says Lumentum is 'way behind' on high-power lasers; sold-out window stretched from 2028 toward 2029.
Last close (delayed) · 2026-10-26
$823.6
+8.92% today
1W
−1.3%
1M
−12.5%
3M
+26.3%
YTD
+123.4%
1Y
+359.3%
Off 52w high
−27.3%
Next earnings (est.): 2026-11-05
Market cap$68.50B
P/E (trailing)—Forward 21.1
EV / sales22.0×EV/EBITDA 83.0×
Revenue (TTM)$3.01BGrowth 109.3% y/y
Margins44.2%gross · op 28.0%
Free cash flow$225MCash $2.74B · debt $1.67B
Analyst target$1,165.0+41.5% upside · 27 analysts · buy
Riskβ 1.54Short 8.2% of float

Fundamentals from public market data, refreshed daily (2026-10-24 02:59 UTC). Figures in reporting currency.

LITE · price with what management and the data said

Supply tighteningBeat / raiseMiss / cutData releaseEasing Hover a numbered marker for details · dashed lines = 50- and 200-day averages

Timeline: management commentary, data & earnings

8 events
  1. 8
    2026-08-11Michael Hurlston, CEO (FQ4)Supply tightening

    Revenue $1.01B; FQ1 guide $1.225–1.275B. 'Way behind' on high-power laser shipments; demand for some EMLs exceeds supply by over 30%. New InP substrate deal with AXT. Source ↗

  2. 7
    2026-05-05Lumentum FQ3 callSupply tightening

    Laser supply–demand imbalance put at 25–30%; expected to be sold out through 2028. Source ↗

  3. 6
    2026-02-03EarningsBeat / raise

    Reported EPS 1.67 vs 1.41 expected (+18.6% surprise).

  4. 5
    2025-11-04EarningsBeat / raise

    Reported EPS 1.1 vs 1.03 expected (+7.0% surprise).

  5. 4
    2025-08-12EarningsBeat / raise

    Reported EPS 0.88 vs 0.81 expected (+8.9% surprise).

  6. 3
    2025-05-06EarningsBeat / raise

    Reported EPS 0.57 vs 0.5 expected (+13.7% surprise).

  7. 2
    2025-02-06EarningsBeat / raise

    Reported EPS 0.42 vs 0.36 expected (+17.0% surprise).

  8. 1
    2024-11-07EarningsBeat / raise

    Reported EPS 0.18 vs 0.12 expected (+48.0% surprise).

Predictions involving LITE

Earnings history

EPS vs expectations
DateExpected EPSReported EPSSurprise
2026-08-112.973.23+8.8%
2026-05-052.272.37+4.6%
2026-02-031.411.67+18.6%
2025-11-041.031.1+7.0%
2025-08-120.810.88+8.9%
2025-05-060.50.57+13.7%
2025-02-060.360.42+17.0%
2024-11-070.120.18+48.0%
2024-08-140.020.06+141.2%
2024-05-060.260.29+11.4%
2024-02-080.30.32+6.5%
2023-11-080.290.35+20.7%
2023-08-170.550.59+6.3%
2023-05-090.780.75−3.9%
2023-02-091.321.52+14.8%
2022-11-081.561.69+8.2%
2022-08-161.331.47+10.6%
2022-05-041.121.19+6.5%
2022-02-031.581.6+1.5%
2021-11-041.551.79+15.7%
2021-08-181.051.15+9.0%
2021-05-121.41.4+0.3%
2021-02-021.911.99+4.3%
2020-11-021.471.78+21.2%

About Lumentum

Website ↗

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers component products, including semiconductor laser chips, laser sub-assemblies, line subsystems, and wavelength management systems. The company also offers system products, such as optical modules, optical circuit switches, and industrial lasers, including short-pulse solid-state lasers and kilowatt-class fiber lasers. Its products and solutions are used in cloud, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), telecommunications, consumer, and industrial end-market applications. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

13,757 employees · San Jose, United States

The scarce part of an 800G/1.6T link is often the laser — EML and CW lasers grown on indium-phosphide wafers that few fabs can make at volume.

InP substrate→Epitaxy→EML / CW laser→Module

What would prove us wrong. Weakens if laser ASPs fall sharply while transceiver volumes rise — the choke would have moved.

Cluster scale pushes past copper. 800G→1.6T pluggables ramp now; co-packaged optics shift value toward the switch and laser.

Laser→Module→Switch→Fabric

What would prove us wrong. Weakens if transceiver ASP collapses with surplus module capacity.

Peers at the same bottleneck

Who else supplies this

StockRoleLast1D1MYTDTrend
COHR
Coherent
Lasers, InP capacity and optical transceivers $221.3+5.74%−25.2%+19.9%
AXTI
AXT Inc
InP and GaAs substrates $56.26+8.03%−28.7%+244.1%
IQE.L
IQE
Compound-semiconductor epitaxial wafers 34.90p−1.27%−24.8%+598.0%
FN
Fabrinet
Precision optical manufacturing for transceivers $332.3+5.51%−20.4%−27.0%
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics
US-made optical modules and lasers $71.85+6.43%−29.1%+106.1%
300308.SZ
Zhongji Innolight
Largest 800G/1.6T transceiver maker ¥594.5−2.96%−33.5%−2.3%
300502.SZ
Eoptolink
High-speed optical modules ¥251.7−3.57%−40.7%−18.1%
CIEN
Ciena
Coherent optics for data-centre interconnect $340.6+6.36%−4.6%+45.6%

Not investment advice. Prices delayed and in local currency. Quotes in "double quotes" are verbatim as reported by the linked source; other commentary is our paraphrase. Earnings dates are estimates.