Lumentum jumped without a clear catalyst

Key highlights

1. AI chips & foundryNvidia to invest $3 billion in Meta as tech giants deepen AI partnershipNVDA +2.4%META -1.9%
2. Optics & networkingLumentum stock surges 10% as AI components ‘completely sold out’LITE +8.2%
3. Memory & storageSamsung Electronics and SK hynix eye $139 billion combined Q3 profit on AI chipsSamsung Electronics -1.2%SK hynix -0.2%
4. Robotics & physical AIAn 11-person startup raised $40 million to challenge robotics' data-hungry giants
5. Neoclouds, bonds & AI financingBroadcom Could Generate Up to $30 Billion in Revenue From Anthropic AI Financing Deal With Limited Risk, Truist SaysAVGO +2.3%
6. AI models & applicationsMU, SKHY Stocks Rise As Anthropic Filing Shows $450B In Compute CommitmentsMU +3.0%

Markets

The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1% and chip stocks outperformed (+2.7%). Asia had a rally: KOSPI +3.1%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.1%, Nikkei 225 +1.7%, Hang Seng -0.7%. In Korean memory, SK hynix fell 0.2% and Samsung -1.2%. The US 10-year yield held 0bp to 4.99%; oil -0.8%, VIX 17.8.

The AI chain today average move · day / week

AI chips & foundry +0.6%

Chip stocks +0.6% on the day (25 of 40 up), -6.3% on the week. Arm led (+6.2%) and Amkor lagged (-6.3%).

• Memory Chip Giants Worth $2 Trillion Face Test to Prove AI Isn't a Bubble
• Intel Rises 5% as New Street Upgrade Cites Server CPU ShortageINTC +4.0%AMD +2.8%

Memory & storage +1.0%

Memory and storage stocks +1.0% on the day (4 of 7 up), -2.9% on the week. Western Digital led (+3.6%).

• SK Hynix Plans $12 Billion Dividend From Kioxia Gains: ReportSK hynix -0.2%Kioxia -1.6%
• Memory Titans Test AI Demand While Bubble Fears Transfix Markets

Optics & networking +2.3%

Optics and networking stocks +2.3% on the day (14 of 19 up), -6.8% on the week. Lumentum led (+8.2%) and Eoptolink lagged (-3.6%).

• Bernstein kept USD 250 target for Arista Networks stockANET +2.8%

Servers, racks & components +0.8%

Server and component stocks +0.8% on the day (10 of 27 up), -4.6% on the week. Vicor led (+10.6%) and Celestica lagged (-5.1%).

• AI data center boom risks squeezing power chip supplies for auto, electronics
• SICC Reports 2,330.24% Surge in Net Profit for First Three Quarters

Power & grid +0.9%

Power and grid stocks +0.9% on the day (33 of 50 up), -4.5% on the week. Rolls-Royce led (+6.1%) and Eos Energy lagged (-6.4%).

• Bloom Energy Jumps 7% as Post-Earnings Selloff ReversesBE +5.5%
• EQT becomes the nation’s leading natural gas ‘juggernaut’ with a $13B deal as data center, export demand surgesEQT -1.4%
• GE Vernova Stock And 2 Nuclear Power Shares In The SpotlightGEV +4.9%

Data centers, cooling & build speed +1.6%

Data center, cooling and builder stocks +1.6% on the day (15 of 22 up), -6.7% on the week. Comfort Systems USA led (+7.2%) and Applied Digital lagged (-2.3%).

• Tesla Isn’t a Hyperscaler. Why the AI Bears Are Misreading Its $5 Billion Capex CutTSLA +5.2%
• Spain revises data center renewable mandate
• Data center backlash is uniting America

Hyperscalers & AI spending -0.2%

Hyperscaler stocks -0.2% on the day (2 of 5 up), -5.3% on the week.

• Meta announces $95 billion stock offering to fund AI expansionMETA -1.9%
• Microsoft offers voluntary buyouts to 60,000 employees as AI leads to efficiency pushMSFT +1.5%
• Several Important Factors Protect Amazon’s Margins and Secure Its AI MoatAMZN +0.4%

Neoclouds, bonds & AI financing +0.2%

Neocloud stocks +0.2% on the day (3 of 5 up), -7.4% on the week. Core Scientific led (+3.1%) and Nebius lagged (-3.5%).

• NBIS Stock Rises Overnight: Neocloud Reportedly Raises Nearly $280M For France Data CenterNBIS -3.5%
• 'We've seen this model before': 'The Big Short' traders unpack their bet against CoreWeaveCRWV +1.8%

AI models & applications +2.0%

AI software and security stocks +2.0% on the day (26 of 35 up), +6.8% on the week. Viasat led (+8.0%).

• IonQ Awarded $7.5 Million Follow-On Funding from AFRL to Advance Full-Stack Quantum NetworkingIONQ -1.6%
• Anthropic’s IPO filing lifts stocks across Asia—except for China

Robotics & physical AI +1.2%

Robotics stocks +1.2% on the day (32 of 45 up), -0.6% on the week. Arm led (+6.2%) and Symbotic lagged (-3.5%).

• Sterling Anderson doesn’t think humanoid robots should be building cars
• Park Hyeon-ju says AI boom still early, urges Korea to lead chips and robotics

Materials +0.8%

Materials stocks +0.8% on the day (14 of 25 up), -4.5% on the week. Pilbara Minerals led (+8.4%) and United States Antimony lagged (-6.9%).

• Canadian mining company Teck Resources says workers began a strikeTECK +2.0%
• NRF commits up to $110m for Victorian rare earths project

Policy & regulation

Rules, taxes and local politics are now a regular part of the build-out story.

• OpenAI applies for federal permit to build portion of Effingham County, Texas, data center on wetlands
• Spain relaxes initial proposal for data-center rules

Data & what's coming

• H100 rental price: +1.9% over 7 days.

Next 7 days

• 10-27EarningsSK hynix (000660.KS)
• 10-27EarningsHanmi Semiconductor (042700.KS)
• 10-27EarningsHD Hyundai Electric (267260.KS)
• 10-27EarningsUnimicron (3037.TW)
• 10-27EarningsShin-Etsu Chemical (4063.T)
• 10-27EarningsASM International (ASM.AS)