The forecasts that matter — and whether they're coming true

Each card shows who made the call and when, the number, why they think so, what it means for stocks, and our read on whether the latest data is tracking it.

All Data-center capacity Power Capex Chips & memory Optics

RaisedOn trackWatchAt risk Raised = since revised up · At risk = data running away from the call (either direction)

Lumentum · 2026-10

Raised

Sold out ~2029Laser supply gap · by 2028

Lumentum's optoelectronic parts are sold out to nearly 2029; unmet demand for some lasers ~70% in 2027 and ~30% in 2028.

Why: Indium-phosphide wafer and laser-fab capacity can't keep up with 1.6T optics and co-packaged optics.
What it means: Pricing power for LITE and COHR; substrate makers (AXT) benefit. LightCounting disagrees and expects easing by end-2026 — the key debate.
Status: Sold-out window extended from 2028 (April) to ~2029.

LITE−5.8%COHR−16.6%AXTI−21.6%FN−16.1%

Source ↗

Stock figures next to each card are 1-month price changes. Forecasts are summarised from the linked public sources; where only secondary coverage was available we say so. Status is our editorial judgement. Not investment advice.