Predictions
The forecasts that matter — and whether they're coming true
Each card shows who made the call and when, the number, why they think so, what it means for stocks, and our read on whether the latest data is tracking it.
RaisedOn trackWatchAt risk
Raised = since revised up · At risk = data running away from the call (either direction)
Morgan Stanley · 2026-10
On track
32 GWGW shortfall 2026–28 · by 2028
US data centers face a ~32 GW power shortfall through 2028 even after counting onsite generation — about 34% of projected need.
- Why
- Gross need of ~68 GW for 2026–28 vs ~30 GW covered by plants under construction and spare grid capacity; onsite power and fuel cells close only part of the rest.
- What it means
- Favours anyone who can deliver power fast: fuel cells, gas engines/turbines, nuclear restarts, and grid-equipment makers. A risk for chip shipment timing if racks wait for power.
- Status
- August note had a 38 GW gap; the smaller October figure nets out more onsite generation.
Goldman Sachs · 2026-10
Raised
+38%/yrUS data-center load (GW) · by 2027
US data-center power demand grows ~38% a year in 2026 and 2027 (earlier path: 31 GW in 2025 → 41 GW in 2026 → 66 GW in 2027).
- Why
- Raised from its May 2026 forecast on hyperscaler capex guides and AI chip shipments.
- What it means
- Utilities with spare capacity in Texas, Virginia and the Southeast, and independent power producers selling to hyperscalers.
- Status
- Revised up in October 2026.
194 GWUS data-center demand (GW) · by 2035
US data-center pipeline reaches 194 GW by 2035; chip-based model points to up to ~207 GW by 2033.
- Why
- Repeatedly revised up — 78 GW → 106 GW → 194 GW — as the project pipeline grew.
- What it means
- A decade-long order book for gas turbines, transformers, HV cable and nuclear fuel.
- Status
- Third upward revision.
≥125 GWGas GW under contract · by Dec 2026
GE Vernova ends 2026 with at least 125 GW of gas turbines under contract (backlog + slot reservations).
- Why
- 116 GW at end of Q2 after signing 20 GW in a single quarter.
- What it means
- Turbine slots now stretch toward 2030 — onsite power alternatives (fuel cells, engines, aeroderivatives) fill the gap.
- Status
- Q3 results are the next checkpoint.
945 TWhGlobal data-center electricity (TWh) · by 2030
Global data-center electricity use roughly doubles to ~945 TWh by 2030 (base case), ~1,200 TWh by 2035.
- Why
- AI-accelerated servers are the main driver; the US and China account for most of the growth.
- What it means
- A useful conservative anchor — most 2026 sell-side forecasts now run above the IEA path.
- Status
- 'At risk' of being too low: private forecasts are running well ahead.
Stock figures next to each card are 1-month price changes. Forecasts are summarised from the linked public sources; where only secondary coverage was available we say so. Status is our editorial judgement. Not investment advice.