Taiwan MOEA · 2026-10-20
On track
>$1.1TTaiwan export orders · by 2026
Taiwan export orders rise 62–67% y/y in October 2026; full-year orders exceed $1.1 trillion.
- Why
- AI servers, chips and memory; September orders a record $114.2B.
- What it means
- Confirms Q4 strength for Taiwan's supply chain (TSMC, Foxconn, Quanta, Delta).
- Status
- October data out ~Nov 20.
51 GWGW energised per year · by 2027
New data-center IT capacity outside China more than doubles to ~51 GW in 2027, from ~25 GW in 2026.
- Why
- About three-quarters of the 2027 total is already operational or under construction — 24 GW+ across 40 campuses.
- What it means
- Doubling the build rate doubles demand for transformers, switchgear, cooling and electricians in a single year. Skeptics (e.g. Altimeter's Brad Gerstner on an earlier 43 GW call) argue delivery will land nearer 25 GW.
- Status
- Up from an earlier ~43 GW projection.
Short to 2028Litho capacity vs demand · by 2028
Planned 30% capacity increases in 2027 and again in 2028 will not be enough to meet customer demand for lithography.
- Why
- Memory and leading-edge logic customers all expanding at once.
- What it means
- Litho stays the gate on new fab capacity — supports ASML pricing and Zeiss-chain suppliers; caps how fast memory supply can grow.
- Status
- 2026 sales guided €44–45B.
Morgan Stanley · 2026-10
On track
32 GWGW shortfall 2026–28 · by 2028
US data centers face a ~32 GW power shortfall through 2028 even after counting onsite generation — about 34% of projected need.
- Why
- Gross need of ~68 GW for 2026–28 vs ~30 GW covered by plants under construction and spare grid capacity; onsite power and fuel cells close only part of the rest.
- What it means
- Favours anyone who can deliver power fast: fuel cells, gas engines/turbines, nuclear restarts, and grid-equipment makers. A risk for chip shipment timing if racks wait for power.
- Status
- August note had a 38 GW gap; the smaller October figure nets out more onsite generation.
Goldman Sachs · 2026-10
Raised
+38%/yrUS data-center load (GW) · by 2027
US data-center power demand grows ~38% a year in 2026 and 2027 (earlier path: 31 GW in 2025 → 41 GW in 2026 → 66 GW in 2027).
- Why
- Raised from its May 2026 forecast on hyperscaler capex guides and AI chip shipments.
- What it means
- Utilities with spare capacity in Texas, Virginia and the Southeast, and independent power producers selling to hyperscalers.
- Status
- Revised up in October 2026.
Lumentum · 2026-10
Raised
Sold out ~2029Laser supply gap · by 2028
Lumentum's optoelectronic parts are sold out to nearly 2029; unmet demand for some lasers ~70% in 2027 and ~30% in 2028.
- Why
- Indium-phosphide wafer and laser-fab capacity can't keep up with 1.6T optics and co-packaged optics.
- What it means
- Pricing power for LITE and COHR; substrate makers (AXT) benefit. LightCounting disagrees and expects easing by end-2026 — the key debate.
- Status
- Sold-out window extended from 2028 (April) to ~2029.
Tight to 2028Memory supply/demand · by 2028
Memory supply stays tight through 2028; most of calendar-2027 HBM is already sold.
- Why
- HBM uses roughly three times the wafer area per bit of standard DRAM, so every HBM generation pulls capacity from conventional memory.
- What it means
- Higher-for-longer memory prices — good for MU, SK hynix, Samsung; a cost headwind for phone and PC makers.
- Status
- Korea chip exports +222% y/y in Oct 1–20.
TrendForce · 2026-09-30
Raised
+10–15%Contract price change · by Q4 2026
Q4 2026 DRAM contract prices rise 10–15% q/q and NAND 15–20%.
- Why
- AI-server orders keep supply tight; consumer demand softer.
- What it means
- Still rising, but slower than Q2/Q3 — watch whether Q1 2027 increases shrink further.
- Status
- Oct 20 update pointed to ~+20% for DRAM.
$230BAVGO AI revenue · by FY2028
Broadcom AI semiconductor revenue roughly doubles to ~$115B in FY2027 and again to ~$230B in FY2028.
- Why
- Custom-ASIC programs (Google TPU and others) plus AI networking; FY2026 guided to $58B.
- What it means
- Custom chips taking share of AI compute — positive for TSMC, HBM makers and optics regardless of GPU vs ASIC mix.
- Status
- Q4 FY26 AI guide $21.7B (+236% y/y).
$1T+MSFT + GOOGL + AMZN + META capex · by 2027
Combined hyperscaler capex tops $1 trillion in 2027 (Goldman: ~$1.14T), after ~$725B in 2026.
- Why
- 2026 guides were raised through the year (Amazon to ~$220B, Alphabet $195–205B). Consensus tables put 2027 at ~$935B for the big four alone.
- What it means
- Sets the revenue ceiling for every AI supplier. The key risk: free-cash-flow pressure leads one hyperscaler to cut, and others follow.
- Status
- Q3 hyperscaler earnings (late Oct) are the next test.
NVIDIA · 2026-08-26
Watch
$40B/GW$ revenue per GW · by 2027
NVIDIA's revenue per gigawatt of data center rises from ~$18B (Hopper) to ~$25B (Grace Blackwell) to ~$40B (Vera Rubin).
- Why
- More silicon, memory and networking per watt with each generation.
- What it means
- Multiply by GW added per year (see SemiAnalysis: ~51 GW in 2027) for a top-down ceiling on AI chip spend.
- Status
- Vera Rubin ramps through 2027.
194 GWUS data-center demand (GW) · by 2035
US data-center pipeline reaches 194 GW by 2035; chip-based model points to up to ~207 GW by 2033.
- Why
- Repeatedly revised up — 78 GW → 106 GW → 194 GW — as the project pipeline grew.
- What it means
- A decade-long order book for gas turbines, transformers, HV cable and nuclear fuel.
- Status
- Third upward revision.
≥125 GWGas GW under contract · by Dec 2026
GE Vernova ends 2026 with at least 125 GW of gas turbines under contract (backlog + slot reservations).
- Why
- 116 GW at end of Q2 after signing 20 GW in a single quarter.
- What it means
- Turbine slots now stretch toward 2030 — onsite power alternatives (fuel cells, engines, aeroderivatives) fill the gap.
- Status
- Q3 results are the next checkpoint.
+18% '27WFE growth · by 2027
Bernstein: wafer-fab equipment grows 21.4% in 2026 and 18.2% in 2027, driven by memory. SEMI's Dec 2025 view was far lower (+9% / +7%).
- Why
- DRAM and NAND capex surging with memory prices.
- What it means
- If Bernstein is right, tool makers' 2027 numbers are too low — especially memory-heavy LRCX, TEL and AMAT.
- Status
- SEAJ raised Japan tool forecast to +26% in July.
~30%HBM share of DRAM wafers · by 2027
HBM rises from ~20% of DRAM wafer capacity in 2026 to near 30% in 2027; HBM market +58% in 2026 to ~$54.6B.
- Why
- HBM4 for Vera Rubin and custom ASICs.
- What it means
- Less wafer capacity left for PCs and phones — supports conventional DRAM prices too.
- Status
- Trade-press figure; verify against TrendForce.
945 TWhGlobal data-center electricity (TWh) · by 2030
Global data-center electricity use roughly doubles to ~945 TWh by 2030 (base case), ~1,200 TWh by 2035.
- Why
- AI-accelerated servers are the main driver; the US and China account for most of the growth.
- What it means
- A useful conservative anchor — most 2026 sell-side forecasts now run above the IEA path.
- Status
- 'At risk' of being too low: private forecasts are running well ahead.
Stock figures next to each card are 1-month price changes. Forecasts are summarised from the linked public sources; where only secondary coverage was available we say so. Status is our editorial judgement. Not investment advice.